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☆ Good news is good news for the market — finally. Also, a recently struggling stock may be a buy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Good news is good news: The stock market correctly viewed the good jobs data as good news — no matter what it means for the timing of the first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Those concerns were the catalyst that caused oil to spike late Thursday and the stock market to spiral. Costco and TJX should be holding up better because they both are market share gainers that offer great value to their customers. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, he's, Ford, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, Jonas, Eaton, Wynn, Estee Lauder, It's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, Ford, U.S, General Motors, Wynn Resorts, Meta, Thursday's, Amazon, Palo Alto Networks, TJX Companies, Retail, Costco, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Eaton, Macao, Mizuho, Palo

☆ A Fed rate cut could actually mean bad news for stocks, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A Fed rate cut usually signals something bad happening, Bespoke's Paul Hickey told CNBC. But the stock market rally doesn't really need the Fed to cut rates in order to keep climbing. "Be careful what you wish for," he told CNBC, adding: "They cut rates for a reason, as we've talked about in the past, and they usually don't cut rates because things are going great." Related storiesThat may be hard to hear for investors, as markets have spent months deciphering Fedspeak for clues as to when the first rate cut will happen. "Last week's Fed meeting put the nail in the coffin on a rate cut, and the market had its best week of the year," he said.

Persons: Bespoke's Paul Hickey, —, Paul Hickey, we've, Hickey, it's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Wall Street learns an important lesson. Don’t fight the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

That sudden volatility highlights something that we often write about in Before the Bell: the major mismatch between policymaker and investor expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly said they envision at most three rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street, meanwhile, has ignored those warnings and has opted to practice unflinching optimism instead. It’s not the first time they’ve had to learn an important lesson: Don’t fight the Fed. Bad for the markets, good for the Fed: Markets clearly don’t often take kindly to higher-for-longer interest rates, which can negatively impact earnings and stock prices.

Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Dow, It’s, they’ve, Don’t, –, ”, Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, José Torres, Chris Zaccarelli, doesn’t, ” Carl Icahn, Carl Icahn, Icahn, Chris Isidore, JetBlue’s, Samantha Delouya, Lyft, Erin Brewer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Treasury, LPL, Fed, Interactive Brokers, CPI, Independent, Alliance, JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Analysts Locations: New York, December’s, “, ”

☆ The Fed itself is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing for the economy, former Fed official Claudia Sahm said. The Fed is the biggest risk to the soft landing." Instead, an "unnecessary" recession created by elevated interest rates would be far worse. Advertisement"The idea that the worst thing that the Fed can do is cut and then raise is dangerous," she wrote. For the Fed to reverse its rate cuts wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, Sahm said.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, Chris Waller, Raphael Bostic, Sahm, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Jerome Powell, that's Organizations: Service, Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ Dollar at one-month high as rate cut expectations ease on Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar index hovered at a one-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller dampened expectations for a March rate cut. "I will need more information in the coming months confirming or (conceivably) challenging the notion that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our inflation goal," before backing rate cuts, he said on Tuesday. Market expectations of a rate cut in March have eased to a 62.2% chance versus an 76.9% view in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. "Rate cuts are coming but not as soon as some might be hoping for," Sycamore said. Meanwhile, the euro was hanging near a one-month low at $1.0875 after its steepest one-day percentage drop in two weeks, following comments from several ECB policymakers this week that maintained uncertainty over the timing of rate cuts.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CME's, Tony Sycamore, Christine Lagarde, Sycamore, Sterling, Rodrigo Catril Organizations: Federal Reserve, IG, European Central Bank, Treasury, Bank of Japan, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Asia

☆ Gold extends slide as dollar firms on hawkish Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices extended losses on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened after hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official dampened expectations for a March interest rate cut, while traders awaited comments from more Fed speakers this week. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,023.49 per ounce, as of 0415 GMT, after stooping 1.3% in the previous session - its biggest single-day decline since Dec. 4, 2023. Flow of funds to the U.S. dollar have been a key driver impacting the gold price, said Michael Langford, chief investment officer at Scorpion Minerals Ltd, forecasting bullion to trade around $2,000/Oz in the near term. With geopolitical tensions escalating, safe-haven flows could provide a floor for the gold price. However, "the short-term fate of the gold price is likely in the hands of the bond market," Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, wrote in a note.

Persons: Michael Langford, Christopher Waller, Tim Waterer Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Scorpion Minerals Ltd, Treasury, KCM, U.S Locations: U.S

Nov 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets on Wednesday should be well-placed to bounce back from the previous day's declines, supported by another positive showing on Wall Street that secured the S&P 500's and Nasdaq's longest winning streak in two years. Tuesday's slide in U.S. Treasury yields will also support risk appetite in Asia, although some of that could be tempered by the dollar's resilience. With little on the regional economic data and policy events calendar to give markets a steer, investors will probably take their cue from Wall Street. The mostly cautious tone from U.S. policymakers on Tuesday should also help support sentiment in Asia on Wednesday.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, WeWork, Softbank, Fed's Powell, Williams, Barr, Cook, Josie Kao Organizations: Treasury, Nasdaq, Monetary Fund, IMF, Aussie, Reserve Bank of, Japan FX, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Asia, China, Beijing, Reserve Bank of Australia, Jefferson, Japan

☆ There are 2 factors that may be driving bond yields more than Fed meetings, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department

☆ The stock market is riskier and more volatile than it was in past decades. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 has become more volatile in recent years, according to research firm DataTrek. The bigger factor is the massive growth of big tech stocks that make up more and more of the S&P 500. "The S&P 500 has become noticeably more volatile over the last +60 years, but returns have not increased commensurately," DataTrek said in a note published Thursday. AdvertisementAdvertisementHere's why the research firm sees higher risk in the stock market today than in past eras. Unexpected developments hit harderAnother explanation is that the market in recent years has had an outsized reaction to unanticipated developments relative to past eras.

Persons: —, DataTrek, Apollo, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Big Tech, Data, GameStop

☆ Markets are misreading Fed officials' comments, and the central bank could still raise rates, analyst warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The markets have been misinterpreting recent Fedspeak, a Barclays analyst said. Markets "have read far too much into recent Fedspeak that implied that these higher rates might have done some of the heavy lifting." If a strong US economy is driving interest rates higher, the Fed may have to hike rates again. But I think we've read far too much into recent Fedspeak that implied that these higher rates might have done some of the heavy lifting," she said. The so-called Fedspeak infused markets with optimism that the central bank will be pausing rate hikes.

Persons: —, Meghan Graper, isn't, Powell, Jerome Powell, Graper Organizations: Barclays, Service, Bloomberg, Economic, of New Locations: of New York

☆ S&P 500 rally in Q4 "more likely than not" despite headwinds - Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 16 (Reuters) - A rally in the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 "is more likely than not", Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said in a note. Morgan Stanley maintains its 3,900 year-end price target for the S&P 500 and believes the best way to position is a barbell of defensive growth stocks that have stable earnings, and late-cycle cyclical stocks such as energy. Stocks came under selling pressure last week as investors rushed to Treasuries after a surprise attack by militant group Hamas against Israel, but S&P 500 still managed to eke out some gains. "The fact that stocks rallied early in the week emboldened the view that equity markets could withstand another exogenous shock," Wilson said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Stocks, Shubham Batra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Bengaluru

☆ US stocks trade mostly lower as jump in oil prices reignites inflation fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mostly lower on Tuesday as a spike in oil prices reignited inflation fears. If inflation reaccelerates, it could force the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate hikes. Fed Governor Chris Waller said recent economic data suggests the Fed can "proceed carefully" with further rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures are currently pricing in no more interest rate hikes for this cycle and a potential interest rate cut by May 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are awaiting more Fedspeak later this week to ascertain whether more interest rate hikes in store.

Persons: Chris Waller, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, CNBC, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Fed decision trade: What JPMorgan traders see the market doing, based on these scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street is eagerly awaiting the latest Federal Reserve decision, as traders weigh whether the market's stunning rally this year can continue. This a reconfiguration of CPI that should affect prints beginning in October," JPMorgan traders wrote. 33%-34% chance — hike and continue: Under this outcome, the Fed would raise rates and signal that further tightening is ahead. Right now, the market sees only about a 30% chance of one more rate hike this year, JPMorgan traders said. Less than 1% chance — Fed signals tightening campaign ended in May.

Persons: Jerome Powell, June's, Skip, Powell, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, PPI

☆ Fed raises interest rates, leaves door open to another increase - Reuters News
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The rate hike, the Fed's 11th in its last 12 meetings, set the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, and the accompanying policy statement left the door open to another increase. The Fed raised (the Fed funds target rate) by a quarter point and the vote was unanimous, and the move puts rates at a 22-year high." "We think recent data is consistent with the US policy rate peaking in July, as core CPI inflation slowed sharply in June. "Fed Chair Powell is going to suggest that for the time being that they need to assess more information for inflation. "Markets are for the most part becoming more confident the Fed won't have to raise rates in September.

Persons: GENNADIY GOLDBERG, J Powell, they've, They're, Powell, we've, ELLEN HAZEN, ” MICHAEL BROWN, JACK ABLIN, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” PETER CARDILLO, Jackson, GURPREET GILL, GOLDMAN, QUINCY KROSBY, ” EDWARD MOYA, We'll, we'll Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, Dow, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, PALM BEACH , FLORIDA, WISCONSIN, GOLDMAN SACHS, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA

☆ The Fed is secretly stress testing the US economy against nightmare scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

When asked how the Fed plans for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical front, he first responded in Fedspeak. At every Fed policy meeting, he said, “our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations,” he said. The market impact: The policy scenarios considered by the Fed are quite sensitive. That’s likely why when Powell was asked about the scenarios the Fed had most recently considered, he stayed mum. They’re posting elaborate TikToks where they pretend that the McDonald’s Grimace shake has killed them, of course.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell didn’t, ”, they’re, Joe Brusuelas, Stacey Tevlin, Ben Bernanke, Philippa Dunne, “, Danielle DiMartino Booth, That’s, Powell, “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, “ Bidenomics, Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena, Read, McDonald’s, Scottie Andrew, Grimace’s, Ronald McDonald, Andrews, it’s, Matthew Prince, “ It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, European Central Bank, Federal, RSM, “, Fed, Bloomberg, TLR, QI Research, Federal Reserve, Chapman University, CNN Locations: New York, Portugal, Fedspeak, China, Chicago, America, California, ”

☆ Morning Bid: Hawkish pause for thought?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Asian equities are carrying on the global rally, setting Europe up nicely to do the same. The Fedspeak that has been such a big driver of markets in recent weeks, will go quiet in the days ahead with officials in a blackout period. There's been a slight pullback in expectations for further tightening after last week's data showed euro-area CPI cooling more than analysts predicted. Lagarde said that day that there was still "ground to cover" in the tightening cycle. The lira weakened more than 1% to 21.12 per dollar in thin Asian trading, approaching the record low of 21.80 marked last week.

Persons: Kevin Buckland, Chris Weston, Christine Lagarde, There's, Lagarde, Ignazio Visco, Brent, Tayyip Erodogan, Mehmet Simsek, Sam Holmes Organizations: Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ECB, Economic, Monetary Affairs, Bank of Italy, PPI, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, France

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed can't figure out what's happening with the job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New data out Wednesday showed that job openings and hiring both rose in April, while unemployment sits near 53-year lows. What’s happening: The number of available jobs in the United States rose unexpectedly in April after three months of declines. Job openings climbed to 10.1 million in April, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he wants to see more slack in the labor market. “I love what I do,” Dimon told Bloomberg, adding he’s “quite happy” in his current job.

Persons: won’t, —, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, ”, Jefferson, Mark Hamrick, “, Sam Stovall, David Kotok, Joe Biden, It’s, Mitch McConnell, ” Biden, Biden, Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk, Dimon, he’s, ” Dimon, Matt Egan, he’d Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Fed, Index, Commerce Department, FedWatch, Cumberland Advisors, Senate, ”, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Locations: New York, China, Europe, United States, America

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

☆ Debt ceiling drama is back and it's coming for markets. Here's what to know as a deadline looms.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If the trend returns to the upside, it'll buck many of the gloomiest predictions of a crushing earnings recession and a painful stock market sell-off — at least for now. Last week, markets started showing early signs that investors are stressed about a possible US default as the deadline looms without an agreement in sight. Join us in demanding a reasonable negotiation, a responsible debt ceiling, an agreement that brings spending under control" McCarthy said. Here are the latest market moves. Here's why Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson doesn't believe in the latest stock market rally.

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ Gold eyes best week since mid-Jan as traders gauge U.S. rate hike path
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,838.84 per ounce, as of 0358 GMT, rising about 1.5% so far in the week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,844.20. Interest rate hikes to contain high inflation discourage investors from placing money in non-yielding assets such as gold. If Fedspeak reinforces that interest rates could move higher still, then "gold could be in for a troubling end of the week," Spivak said. All the three metals were poised for weekly gains, with platinum on track for its best week since November.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday: Fedspeak, stocks bounce, Palo Alto beats
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. ET: Q&A with Jim and Jeff Marks on general investing, market thoughts, education11:30-12:15 p.m. ET: Jim and Jeff discuss the portfolio (Part 2)2:15-2:45 p.m.

2 role vacant just as the central bank approaches a decision about when to stop raising interest rates. Brainard's arguments may not have been relevant to the decisions the Fed faces in the next few weeks. Heidi Shierholz, president of the labor-affiliated Economic Policy Institute, said it was "unbelievably important" that Biden find someone to fill Brainard's role. Administration officials gave no immediate sense of how soon Biden may name a new Fed vice chair, though outside analysts and commentators were already putting names in circulation from what's considered a deep bench of economists affiliated with Biden's Democratic party. The vice chair plays a particularly important role, typically reserved for somebody with a PhD in economics who can speak with technical authority about Fed policy and decisions.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the market Tuesday: Fedspeak, video games, memesters
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But puts first-quarter EBITDA guide at $710 million versus $762 million expected. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

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